I'm way out of my league here, not knowing quite how to gather the data to back this up, but my wife & I have a theory that there's a correlation between the rise in debit card use and identity theft. I'd sure love to see if the numbers bear this out.
FlowingData Forums » Data Visualization
Debit Cards vs Identity Theft
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You might consider increasing the scope of your project to include credit cards as well. Although credit cards and debit cards feel very similar in the way that you use them, there are several key differences that dictate who eats the loss in the event of identity theft.
Before we get into that, its important to understand the "key players" in the credit/debit world. You have Issuing Banks, Authorizers, Acquirers, and Merchants.
In the world of credit cards, the issue banks are the folks that put up the capital. The authorizer is the company that finds issuing banks to work with and approves credit transactions (Visa, Mastercard, etc are examples of this). The acquirer is the company that finds merchants (FirstData is an example). And merchants are the retailers trying to sell stuff (Walmart, Target, and Costco are examples).
Its important to note the agreements between each of these entities. The issuing bank can only talk to the authorizer. The authorizer can only talk to the issuing bank and the acquirer. The acquirer can only talk to the authorizer and the merchant. And, finally, the merchant can only talk to the acquirer. Make sense? (The bureaucracy still boggles my mind...)
Same thing with debit, but you add in another entity. On the front of your debit card you'll see a Visa or Mastercard logo. But on the back, you'll find a list of other logos like Shazam, Pulse, or Cirrus. These are the "extra" entities in the debit process.
As I mentioned earlier, there are differences between credit and debit cards, and who eats the cost of a fraudulent transaction. With credit, the card holder rarely eats the cost (the merchant usually eats it as a chargeback unless there is a prenegotiated agreement with the acquirer). With debit, the card holder typically eats the cost (unless the cardholder can show no-fault like the card has never been used online on a public unsecured network, etc.)
There is a company called Axciom that would most likely have the data you would need to test your hypothesis. However, with the focus on PCI DSS (www.pcisecuritystandards.org/) in recent years, you may have trouble getting useful data (if they will give you any data at all).
Assuming you get the data... Being a statistics nut with a very large dataset, you'll probably want to look at correlation between different groups. See below for some ideas on groupings.
PIN Debit - Debit cards use a PIN number for verification in a transaction.
Signature Debit - Debit cards that use a signature for verification in a transaction.
Signature Credit - Credit cards that use a signature for verification in a transaction.
Zip Code Prompting - Transactions that require that the card holder's zip code be entered for verrification.
CVV - Transactions that require that the number on the back of the card be used (typically a 3 digit number on the back of the card near the signature area)
Expiration Date - Some cards expire 2 years after being issued, some 4 years, some other time intervals. It would be interesting to see if cards that are available longer hold a greater risk of identity theft.
Policies - Some banks charge the card holder to issue a new card (if he/she thinks it might have been compromised). Do these cards hold more potential for exposure?Hope that helps point you in the right direction. Good luck! =)
-c0nsole
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